Calculated risk posted a fascinating table today under Employment and Real GDP, projecting what the unemployment rate would be over the next year with several what-if GDP growth factors. This is a real eye-opener, and one of the reasons I monitor the Calculated Risk site daily. Please view his site directly for his assumptions and more information. I cannot recommend CR highly enough.
by CalculatedRisk on 12/06/2009 04:52:00 PM
| Real GDP Growth | Percent Payroll Growth | Annual Payroll Growth (000s) | Monthly Payroll Growth (000s) | Approximate Unemployment Rate in One Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | 3.5% | 4,563 | 380 | 8.0% to 8.3% |
| 5.0% | 2.8% | 3,684 | 307 | 8.6% to 8.9% |
| 4.0% | 2.1% | 2,806 | 234 | 9.1% to 9.4% |
| 3.0% | 1.5% | 1,928 | 161 | 9.7% to 10.0% |
| 2.0% | 0.8% | 1,049 | 87 | 10.3% to 10.6% |
| 1.0% | 0.1% | 171 | 14 | 10.8% to 11.1% |
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